(Original title: Domestic oil price adjustment on Thursday "two consecutive stop" into a foregone conclusion this year, refined oil prices rose more or less, and eventually ended in the following adjustments. "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned from a number of social monitoring agencies, the recent international crude oil continued high consolidation, the rate of change is low, this Thursday, the domestic oil price adjustment is facing a resurgence is a foregone conclusion. According to the review, since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have fallen more or less, and on December 28th, we will usher in the last window of price adjustment, and eventually we will close down the following adjustments. Since the domestic oil price adjustment was stranded on November 30, international oil prices have fluctuated at a high level in the news of long-short news. OPEC's decision to extend production to the end of 2018 is favourable to oil prices. However, on December 8th, the data released by Baker Hughes, US oilfield technical service company, showed that as of the week of December 8, the number of active oil drilling in the United States increased by two to 751 seats, rising for the third consecutive week. The highest monthly growth rate in September was also the longest growth period since the summer of this year. In the same period last year, the number of active oil drilling in the United States was 624. This shows that US shale oil producers continue to increase production, forming a bearish for oil prices. As of the close of December 8th, China's crude oil imports surged in November, supporting demand expectations. As international oil prices rose, the growth in the number of oil drilling in the United States suppressed gains. Among them, WTI crude oil futures for delivery in January rose 0.67 US dollars, or 1.18%, to 57.36 US dollars / barrel, but this week, about 1.7% cumulatively; Brent crude oil futures for February delivery rose 1.20 US dollars, or 1.93%, reported 63.40 US dollars / barrel, this week about 0.6%. Affected by this, the rate of change of crude oil is low and volatile. Zhuo Chuang estimates that the rate of change in crude oil on the 7th working day in the domestic market on December 8 was -0.24%, corresponding to a decrease of 8 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel. China's "Administrative Measures on Oil Price" stipulates that domestic gasoline and diesel prices should be adjusted every 10 working days according to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. The effective date of price adjustment is 24 hours on the date of price adjustment. When the price adjustment rate is lower than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment will be made and the cumulative or offset will be included in the next price adjustment. From this calculation, the current price adjustment window will be at 24:00 on December 14. “There are still three working days before the price adjustment. It is expected that crude oil in Europe and the United States will continue to oscillate in the short term, and the rate of change will remain low and fluctuated. The adjustment range of gasoline and diesel will be difficult to reach 50 yuan/ton. The current round of oil price stranding will be a foregone conclusion.†Zhuo Chuang Analyst Hu Huichun, an analyst for refined oil products, said. Jinlian Chuang's calculation of crude oil change rate is -0.51%, corresponding to gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 25 yuan / ton. Li Yang, an analyst of the institution, believes that the OPEC meeting has settled and that short-term international crude oil market speculation will come to an end; in addition, the US demand for refined oil products will increase and demand will decline, which will keep crude oil prices low and fluctuating. The current adjusted retail price adjustment is still within the 50-ton price adjustment red line. Therefore, according to the current crude oil price level, the domestic retail price of petrol and diesel will be aground after the expiry of this round of valuation, but if crude oil continues to drop sharply, it will Face down. As far as the domestic market is concerned, Hu Huichun said that as the weather turns cold, the demand for diesel terminals has gradually declined, which has eased the shortage of diesel resources, and some of the annual tasks have not yet been completed. The oil companies will increase their sales efforts and supply and demand in the refined oil market. The fundamentals are the main factors affecting their prices. At present, the wholesale price is at a high level and the market operation risks are relatively high. It is recommended that traders keep reasonable inventory to reduce risks. According to Gold Link, since 2017, the retail price of gasoline and diesel in China has experienced a total of 10 increases, six reductions and seven strandings. The cumulative increase in gasoline is 365 yuan/ton, and diesel is 350 yuan/ton, respectively; # 0.27 yuan, 0 # 0.30 yuan. On December 28th, the last price adjustment window of this year will usher in. “Given the obvious decline in international oil prices in the near future, after entering a new round of pricing cycle, the retail price may be lowered, but after the middle and late, Lido’s exhaustion will be followed by international oil prices. Or shocks callback, it does not rule out the possibility of continued stranding. "Li Yang said.
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